Cyprus: Reunification Proving Elusive

Vincent Morelli
Section Research Manager

Attempts to resolve the political division of Cyprus and reunify the island have undergone various levels of negotiation for over 45 years. For the past year, Republic of Cyprus President Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu have engaged in an intensified negotiation process but as 2011 ended and 2012 began, no measurable progress had been achieved to reach a mutually agreed settlement. This stalemate raises questions about whether the thus far elusive solution for unification can be achieved at all, increasing the possibility of an outcome bordering on or even permanent separation, potentially as early as July 2012.

On January 22-24, 2012, Christofias and Eroglu were in New York for a fifth meeting with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to assess the progress of the negotiations. Ban had suggested that the “Greentree 2” meeting would attempt to finalize a deal in the areas of governance, economy, and EU issues where convergences had been reported that would allow the U.N. to convene an international conference in the spring to resolve security-related issues and allow referenda on a final agreement in both the north and south by early summer of 2012. The hope among some was that a reunified Cyprus would assume the 6-month rotating presidency of the EU on July 1, 2012.

The Greentree meetings concluded without any movement to end the stalemate as neither Christofias nor Eroglu were willing or able to make necessary concessions on the difficult issues of property rights, territory, security, settlers, and citizenship, areas where both sides have longheld and very different positions. Secretary-General Ban stated that he would wait until he receives a progress report from his Special Advisor at the end of March before deciding whether to convene an international conference. Ban’s press release was not well received in the Republic. Greek Cypriot political parties called the meeting a total failure, criticized Eroglu for backing away from the settlement process, warned against an international conference, and even suggested that Christofias step down as negotiator for a settlement. For his part, Eroglu suggested that the lack of a solution by July would set a number of changes in the north into motion.

Cristofias and Eroglu have resumed their negotiations, yet it appears unlikely that the stalemate can be broken at this point. The Turkish Cypriots appear unable to accept any deal until an international conference suggested by Turkey, and backed by the U.N., be held. Any agreement Christofias would accept would be difficult for him to sell to the political opposition and the ensuing heated debate, even before a referendum could be scheduled, would detract from the upcoming presidency of the EU. Thus, even though negotiations could continue, the potential for any agreement now looks to be delayed not only until after the presidency but also until after the 2013 national elections in the Republic. In essence, the Turkish Cypriots would be placed on hold for almost a year, a period it seems doubtful they would accept.

The United States Congress continues to maintain its interest in a resolution of the Cyprus issue. Language expressing continued support for the negotiation process had been included in the House FY2012 Foreign Assistance Authorization bill. The chairman of the House Europe Subcommittee also led a delegation to Cyprus during a late 2011 recess to assess the peace process.

This report provides a brief overview of the early history of the negotiations, a more detailed review of the negotiations since 2008, and a description of some of the issues involved in the talks. .


Date of Report: February 22, 2012
Number of Pages: 26
Order Number: R41136
Price: $29.95

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